Sam Altman: ‘Yes,’ AI Is in a Bubble — What He Told The Verge

TL;DR

• OpenAI CEO Sam Altman told The Verge he believes the market is in an AI bubble: “My opinion is yes.”
• Altman compared the current market reaction to the dot‑com bubble and warned that investors are overexcited about a “kernel of truth.”
• He called valuations for some tiny AI startups “insane” and said “someone’s gonna get burned.”
• Altman also said OpenAI will likely spend “trillions of dollars on data center construction in the not very distant future.”
• He predicted both large gains and losses across the AI sector but expects, overall, a “huge net win for the economy.” (Additional reporting by Alex Heath.)

Context and background

During a lengthy interview with The Verge and other reporters last night, OpenAI CEO Sam Altman addressed investor enthusiasm around AI. Economists and market observers have been debating whether stock valuations tied to AI represent a bubble that could burst. Altman acknowledged that he believes the market is in such a phase, drawing a parallel to earlier technology bubbles. Altman referenced historical precedent, comparing today’s reaction to AI with the dot‑com bubble of the 1990s, when internet startups saw valuations skyrocket and then collapsed in 2000. His comments contextualize current investor behavior as potentially irrational exuberance built around a genuine technological breakthrough.

What’s new

• Public admission from a leading AI executive that the market may be in a bubble: “Are we in a phase where investors as a whole are overexcited about AI? My opinion is yes.”
• Acknowledgement that some funding activity looks irrational: Altman described it as “insane” that companies with “three people and an idea” are receiving high valuations.
• Naming of notable recent fundraising examples in the AI sector, including Safe Superintelligence and Thinking Machines, which have raised substantial sums over the past year.
• A forecast from Altman that OpenAI will undertake massive infrastructure investment: “You should expect OpenAI to spend trillions of dollars on data center construction in the not very distant future.” All remarks are taken from the interview published by The Verge; additional reporting credited to Alex Heath.

Why it matters (impact for developers/enterprises)

• Capital flows and valuations: Altman’s comments highlight that investor capital currently chasing AI could be volatile. For developers and startups, that means funding conditions might tighten or reprice if speculative investments unwind.
• Talent and hiring dynamics: If small teams with early ideas are being highly valued now — and Altman deems that irrational — hiring competition and compensation expectations may be affected when valuations normalize.
• Infrastructure priorities: OpenAI’s stated expectation of “trillions of dollars” in data‑center spending signals continued and large‑scale demand for compute and operational capacity. Enterprises planning for AI deployments should factor in potential supply and cost pressures for data‑center capacity and related services.
• Economic outcomes: Altman said, “Someone is going to lose a phenomenal amount of money. We don’t know who, and a lot of people are going to make a phenomenal amount of money,” but he added his belief that, overall, the expansion will be a “huge net win for the economy.” That frames AI investment as carrying asymmetric outcomes across stakeholders.

Technical details or Implementation

The source material is an interview focused on market behavior and strategic forecasts rather than technical specifications. Key implementation‑relevant statements from Altman include:

• Infrastructure spending: “You should expect OpenAI to spend trillions of dollars on data center construction in the not very distant future.” This signals large anticipated demand for physical compute infrastructure.
• Market behavior affecting projects: Altman labeled extreme early valuations for very small teams as “not rational behavior,” implying that some funded projects may lack the technical maturity or product readiness typically expected at those valuations. Table: Selected statements and implications

Key takeaways

• Sam Altman publicly stated he believes the AI market is in a bubble and compared it to the dot‑com era.
• He warned that investor excitement can be irrational, citing very high valuations for tiny startups.
• Specific AI startups — Safe Superintelligence and Thinking Machines — were noted as recent fundraising examples over the past year.
• Altman expects major infrastructure spending from OpenAI and foresees a mix of large winners and losers across AI investments.
• Despite risks, he expressed a belief that, overall, AI expansion could be a net positive for the economy.

References

• Sam Altman interview with The Verge: https://www.theverge.com/ai-artificial-intelligence/759965/sam-altman-openai-ai-bubble-interview
• Additional reporting by Alex Heath, as credited in the interview article.